Threat to global food security as climate pressures intensify

A new analysis from the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that even a 1°C rise in global temperature could sharply increase hunger levels worldwide, pushing millions of people into acute food insecurity and amplifying existing crises driven by conflict and economic pressures.

Drawing on 393 food security assessments conducted between 2017 and 2025 across 45 countries, the study examines how local temperature anomalies—departures from the 1992–2016 average—relate to the share of people experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or higher.

According to the WFP report, a simultaneous 1°C warming across all 45 countries would raise the number of acutely food insecure people from 252 million to 322 million—an increase of roughly 70 million people.

When this sensitivity is applied to all 84 countries where WFP operates, the model suggests an additional 276 million people could face crisis-level hunger. WFP stresses, however, that this broader estimate is likely an overstatement, noting that not all countries in its global portfolio show the same vulnerability to temperature variations.

The analysis highlights striking country-level differences. Haiti and Yemen—already among the world’s most food-insecure countries—show some of the highest temperature sensitivities. In both cases, a 1°C temperature anomaly could push the proportion of food-insecure people up by about 8 percentage points.

Afghanistan and Pakistan, the only two countries analyzed in Southern Asia, show divergent reactions: although Afghanistan appears more sensitive proportionally, Pakistan’s much larger population means its projected increase in food-insecure people dominates the regional total.

At the regional level, Eastern Africa stands out. Despite having a population comparable to Western Africa, it shows more than double the projected increase in food insecurity. WFP analysts propose several explanations—ranging from climate exposure to how food security assessments are conducted.

Many Western African countries use the Cadre Harmonisé system, which produces more frequent assessments even during relatively stable periods. This regularity may reduce the appearance of temperature-driven spikes compared with the IPC-based assessments more commonly used in Eastern Africa.

Northern Africa and the Caribbean also display high relative sensitivity, with projected increases of more than 6 percent and nearly 8 percent respectively. However, these regional figures are based on single-country samples—Sudan for Northern Africa and Haiti for the Caribbean—both of which face active conflict and political instability. WFP cautions that conflict-related deterioration may unintentionally be absorbed into the temperature effect.

The report also notes that the relationship between temperature and food insecurity is not linear or universal. Not every episode of hunger aligns with warming, nor does every temperature rise translate into food insecurity. To isolate the temperature effect, the model controls for human development levels, exposure to conflict, and inflation rates. Even with these controls, WFP stresses that the projections reflect associations rather than clear causal pathways.

Importantly, the findings are not tied to any specific date. They illustrate what could happen if today’s countries experienced a 1°C temperature increase under current social, political, and economic conditions. As climate change accelerates and temperatures fluctuate beyond historical norms, the implications for food systems—particularly in already vulnerable regions—are likely to intensify.

The findings add to growing global concern that climate change is accelerating food crises faster than humanitarian systems can respond. As heatwaves, droughts and extreme weather intensify, agencies warn that millions more may be pushed into crisis unless adaptation, resilience and early-warning measures are rapidly scaled.

Acute food insecurity in 16 hotspots

The analysis comes on the back of another report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and WFP, which warns that acute food insecurity is deepening in 16 hunger hotspots, which threatens to drive millions more into famine or risk of famine.

Time is quickly running out to avert widespread starvation in the areas of highest concern. Conflict, economic shocks, extreme weather, and critical funding shortfalls are exacerbating dire conditions. Despite the growing urgency to provide lifesaving assistance at scale, funding is perilously limited.

The latest Hunger Hotspots report, which covers the period from November 2025 through May 2026, finds that in 14 of the 16 hotspots identified, conflict and violence are the primary drivers of hunger.

The report cites six countries and territories of highest concern – Haiti, Mali, Palestine, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen – where populations face an imminent risk of catastrophic hunger (IPC/CH Phase 5).

Six more countries – Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Myanmar, Nigeria, Somalia, and the Syrian Arab Republic – are classified as “very high concern”.

The other four hotspots are Burkina Faso, Chad, Kenya and the situation of the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.