India has lowered its foodgrain production target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tons, citing the risks posed by a strong El Niño and a national rainfall deficit of about 12%.
Addressing a press conference on 29 September to announce the revised target, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the reduction follows scientific assessments of weather conditions that could hurt farm output. The figure of 373.93 million tons of foodgrain is 2.63 million tons below the record 376.56 million tons produced in 2025-26.
The Kharif (summer) season has been assigned 196.21 million tons, while the upcoming Rabi (winter) season target stands at 177.72 million tons.
With reservoir levels low and soil moisture reduced in drought-prone regions, including parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Rajasthan, the government is advising states to steer clear of water-intensive crops such as paddy. Chouhan said affected acreage should be substituted with less water-dependent alternatives, chiefly pulses and oilseeds, to protect farmers and safeguard domestic supply.
The ministry assured that there is no shortage of fertilizers for the Rabi season. Opening stocks are substantially higher than they were last year, despite fluctuations in global markets, he said.
Jaishankar warning
The announcement came a day after external affairs minister S. Jaishankar warned of a looming global food crisis. Speaking at the Asia Society in New York on 28 September, he said the world could face a “major food crisis” in the coming months, driving a “4F crisis” of food, fuel, fertilizer and finance across Global South economies.
Major exporters, he said, are struggling to send out cargoes, particularly through maritime corridors out of the Black Sea. On fertilizer supply, he said key producers are based in conflict-affected regions such as West Asia and Russia, disrupting global production.
The onset of a “Super El Niño” is upsetting seasonal rainfall patterns vital to farming and tight energy markets and supply disruptions are straining finances, while international capital moves toward safe-haven markets, leaving vulnerable nations with little fiscal room.
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Naresh Khanna – 10 February 2025
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