A growing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is raising alarms over global fertilizer supplies, according to an article by Tristan Gaudiaut of Statista. Since February 28, 2026, escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have severely restricted commercial shipping through the vital waterway, leaving it largely closed with limited passage granted to select vessels.
The Strait plays a critical role in global trade, particularly for energy and bulk commodities, and analysts warn that prolonged closures could strain supply chains worldwide. ING notes that fertilizer availability could tighten significantly in import-dependent regions such as Brazil, India, South Asia, and parts of the European Union if disruptions continue.
Data from Signal Group highlights the scale of the risk, showing that roughly 20% of global seaborne fertilizer exports originate from the Arabian Gulf. The dependency is even greater for urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, with nearly 46 percent of global trade tied to Gulf producers and major importers including India, Brazil, and China. India accounted for 18% followed by Brazil (10%) and China (8%), with additional significant shares going to Morocco, the United States, Australia and Indonesia (6 to 8%), the report says.
Experts caution that sustained supply interruptions could drive up fertilizer and energy costs, increasing food production expenses and fueling inflation. Vulnerable regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia, may face heightened food security risks if shortages persist.
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Naresh Khanna – 10 February 2025
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