The fog of war intensifies – Indian citizens are directly affected

India’s food security is helped by imported urea and phosphates, roughly 40% of which originates in the Middle East. Prices for urea have already spiked to US$ 700 per metric ton, a 60% jump since the Isreal and US war against Iran began on 28 February 2026, according to the 8 April online bulletin Anadolu Ajani & Trading Economics. In late February 2026, global urea was trading at a relatively stable range of US$ 350–440 per metric ton.

The effects of gas and fertilizer shortage will likely be felt for months to come, affecting crops that have already been damaged by early rains. Without affordable fertilizers, the upcoming harvest of staples such as rice, wheat, and pulses can be expected to be lower than earlier forecasts.

For an Indian exporter of basmati rice or other fresh and processed foods and spices, freight costs have surged by 11-14% due to emergency fuel surcharges. India’s food and beverage sector is possibly looking at a period of sustained recession. Citizens are looking at higher prices of food in the coming months, and most importantly, for ordinary citizens who do not have piped gas, energy costs are likely to be much higher, especially for informal connections.

A National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) survey recently revealed that 10-15% of restaurants have completely shut down due to fuel unavailability. Many establishments are now operating only during peak hours (lunch and dinner) and have slashed their menus to conserve gas. Small vendors and dhabas are reportedly paying 1.5 to 2 times the usual price for LPG cylinders in the grey market to stay afloat.

According to a recent PTI report, India has ramped up the supply of smaller 5 kg LPG cylinders and accelerated the rollout of piped natural gas (PNG) connections as it manages fuel availability amid disruptions triggered by the ongoing war. More than 13 lakh 5 kilogram free-trade LPG cylinders have been sold since 23 March, with daily sales rising above 100,000 units, as authorities expand access for migrant workers and low-income consumers, according to an official statement. At the same time, over 424,000 new PNG connections have been activated since March, with more than 30,000 consumers surrendering LPG connections as part of the transition.

However, accelerating PNG connections and pushing 5 kg LPG cylinders to over 100,000 units a day is not enough. While these measures help migrant workers keep the stoves lit, they don’t lower the cost of the food going into the pot. For the Indian consumer, this isn’t just about a shortage; it’s about a permanent shift in the cost of living. Whether it’s a Rs 5 increase in a packet of biscuits or a restaurant service surcharge due to energy costs, the common man is sure to suffer the effects of continued war.

Indian food production and distribution were remarkably resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic. The government seems to be aware of the situation and doing its best. The food industry must collaborate with the government and step up to ensure that there are no food shortages, hoarding, or extortionate and inflationary pricing of food commodities and fuel for the duration of the current war!

– Aayush Pandey, edit7@ippgroup.in