The Indian Coffee Board says the final estimate of coffee production for the current crop year from October 2021 to September 2022 is 3.42 lakh tons. In its early post-blossom estimate it is forecasting the 2022-23 coffee crop at 3.93 lakh tons which would represent a 14.9% increase. The Coffee Board secretary says that although the post-blossom estimate is a record tonnage, it is subject to lower final production partly because of current rain deficits in Kerala and Karnataka.
The actual harvest is generally 10 to 15% less than the post-blossom estimates and the rains in the months ahead are the key to the record crop in the coming season. Even if the actual harvest is 10% less than the forecast estimate it is still likely to be a record crop, beating the country’s highest coffee output of 3.48 lakh tons in 2015.
The largest coffee-producing state Karnataka produces about 70% of the total. Its post-blossom Arabica output is expected to reach 86,150 tons in the next coffee year, an increase of 27% over the current year. Its Robusta output is expected to increase by 15% to 199,000 tons from the current year’s 173,625 tons.
An increase of 6 to 21% in coffee output is expected in each of the various coffee-growing districts in the country. This would take the Arabica production from 95,000 tons in the current year to the estimated 116,900 tons in the coming coffee year from October. The current year’s Robusta production of 247,000 tons is expected to rise to 277,00 in the coming year.
Coffee exports stood at 235,000 tons from 1 January 2022 to 11 July 2022 – an increase of 19% over the same period in the last calendar year. Italy, Germany, Belgium, the Russian Federation, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are the six largest importers. The commerce minister stated that in FY 21-22 Indian coffee exports rose by 42% over the previous financial year. While exports will likely rise in FY 22-23, it may be challenging to match the big jump of the previous year.