The second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture released on 10 March 2025, forecasts a record high 115.43 million tons wheat production in the current crop year from July2024 to June 2025. The previous year’s wheat crop amounted to 113.29 million tons.
The advance estimates released on Monday indicate that the higher-than-expected yeild could bring down the prevailing rate of inflation in wheat prices that have risen from 6.02% in April 2024 to 8.8% in January 2025. Wheat prices in Delhi’s wholesale markets are at Rs 3,000 a quintal – considerably above the government’s minimum support price of Rs 2,425 a quintal, which explains the government’s less than ideal procurement in recent years, when farmers prefer to sell their crop to private traders at prices that are 24% higher than the MSP. States such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are offering an additional Rs 150 and Rs 125, respectively to shore up their procurement at prices close to Rs. 2600 a quintal.
Lower than targetted government procurement in previous years has lowered buffer inventories and diminished its ability to cool down food inflation. It is hoped that this year, it may be able to meet its wheat procurement target and also permit wheat exports. There is the additional hope that it could meet its procurement target of 32 million tons in the 2026 crop year.
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Naresh Khanna – 10 February 2025
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