Extreme heat threatens India’s rice bowl & farms — FAO-WMO report

As the monsoon lags and rising heat stress takes a toll on human health across the world, a new joint report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) flags how India’s agricultural heartland is facing escalating damage from extreme heat, with rice production, livestock, and millions of farm workers increasingly at risk.

The report, Extreme Heat and Agriculture, singles out India in two case studies, highlighting the country’s deep vulnerability to compound heat and drought events — and the mounting toll on crops, livestock, and rural livelihoods.

The report assumes significance in the wake of rising heat stress and prolonged heat waves, especially in the wake of IMD’s forecast of a deficient monsoon this year, which threatens India’s vast farm economy. All India average rainfall was deficient by about 42% in June. Against a standard of 113 mm, India received only 65.2 mm in June. July, generally considered the wettest month, is not likely to fare much better.

Rice, the nation’s staple, is under threat

Crucial to India’s food security, 70% of the country’s caloric intake comes from rice, and the summer monsoon rainfall supplies up to 80% of India’s annual precipitation. But the report warns that compound hot-and-dry extremes — already responsible for severe events in 1972, 1987, 2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 — pose a growing threat to that system.

The 2002 monsoon deficit alone caused billions of dollars in economic damage and affected more than a billion people, and this year has already begun on an alarming note.

Looking ahead, the report cites research projecting that extreme wet-bulb temperatures across South Asia could approach or exceed critical thresholds for outdoor worker safety by the late 21st century under high-emission scenarios. This is a particular danger given that India’s rice farming remains labor-intensive and employs millions of agricultural workers. The most intense risk is concentrated in the densely populated Ganges and Indus river basins.

In the last week of June, Delhi’s heat index for example, which takes into account the maximum temperature and humidity levels, crossed the 50 degrees Celsius mark.

Farmers and researchers are testing adaptation strategies, including early-morning-flowering rice varieties, adjusted sowing schedules, heat-resistant breeding, and irrigation for its local cooling effect.

The 2022 heat wave

The report’s second India case study revisits the record-breaking heat wave of March-April 2022 — the warmest such period on record in the country, according to a technical bulletin from the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA). Temperatures ran 8 to 10.8°C above normal, while rainfall fell 60 to 99% below normal across 10 of 36 meteorological subdivisions.

The damage cut across northern and central India, hitting more than a third of the country’s states — including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra.

Key findings from the report

The damage cut across nearly every corner of Indian agriculture. Wheat fields bore the brunt first, with yields falling anywhere from 9 to 34% as the heat set in early. Maize fared little better: stunted growth combined with a fall armyworm outbreak to drag yields down by as much as 18%, while chickpea crops struggled through poor vegetative growth, weak pod formation, and shriveled grain.

Orchards were not spared either. Apple, plum, and lemon trees suffered viral infections, sunburn, and insect infestations that left fruit set diminished across the board. But it was vegetable crops that absorbed the heaviest losses — cabbage and cauliflower yields collapsed by up to 50%, while tomatoes fell 40 to 50% as plants dropped their flowers and fruit, succumbed to sunscald, and ripened prematurely under the heat stress.

Livestock and poultry felt the strain as well. Dairy cattle saw higher calf mortality and skin infections, with milk yields slipping by as much as 15%. Poultry operations were hit hardest of all: egg production dropped by up to 10% as the heat wave began, and mortality rates among laying hens climbed to 3.5 to 4% per month — seven times the normal rate — as the sustained heat stress wore down the birds’ immune defenses.

Warning for the future

Despite being self-sufficient in grain production, the report concludes that Indian agriculture remains acutely exposed to weather extremes. Without stronger mitigation and adaptation measures, it warns, heat waves are set to become a defining and worsening threat to Indian farmers, rice production, and the country’s broader agricultural economy.

(Source: FAO–WMO, Extreme Heat and Agriculture (2026)